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Belmont Stakes 2011

Wed, 08 Jun 2011 23:27:37 +0100

A few facts about Belmont winners since 2000;

7 horses that won the Belmont in the last 11 tries (Since 2000) competed in the Kentucky Derby. None Won. The best Finish was in 2003, 2nd place, Empire Maker. But where it gets interesting is that only 1 of the last 4, Summerbird who finished 6th, even ran in the Derby.

None of the last 5 Belmont winners raced in the Preakness and only 2 since 2000. But they both won the Preakness. This stat screams Shackleford or new shooter.

I think there are 3 pace scenarios that could play out Saturday.

1. (My Favorite) Shackleford has to be sent a little since he is on outside but field assumes he will throttle back due to distance but he doesn't. He tries to "Secretariat" them and builds enough cushion the late runners can't catch him. I think this strategy would have won him the Derby.

2. Shackleford breaks to lead but then slows it way down. Now it has become the Kentucky Derby where he has shown he won't fire when bogged down early. Now Animal Kingdom gets the lead at the top of the stretch and Nehro, 3M and maybe Master of Hounds are making their runs just like in the derby with a little more distance too get it done.

3. Shackleford is sent but the others try to stay with him. It turns into a very unexpected speed duel where the contenders basically run them selves off their own feet. Now Brillant Speed, Monzon and Santiva make their runs while the leaders fall apart. This is the scenario where the Super pays like crazy.

I will spend a little on each scenario, but I think its either gonna be 1 or 3. My pick is 1. I think it's Shackleford's to lose. I know scenario 3 seems crazy but I think it's very possible. You have to remember that Animal Kingdom broke his Maiden from the point going wire to wire. He has more tactical speed than is normally mentioned and I can almost guarantee he will be more forwardly placed. It's also possible that Shack and AK are just the class of the field and they smoke the rest of them.

Remember you can follow me on Twitter at #MissippyGambler

I'm Back

Wed, 25 May 2011 17:50:17 +0100

Had surgery and I'm now laid up on the couch. I'm gonna play the Pick 6 at Belmont today. The last 5 races are all on turf, and I'm not real good on turf. I figure what the hell? I had a $120 ticket for the Preakness so I will just use it. Maybe I will get 5 of 6. I did not think Shackleford could win but I look back and see the error of my ways. I did have him in the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness bet just to cover my self. Looking forward to Belmont day already. I think I will have a better day. I intend on playing Churchill tomorrow and I am sure I will play Belmont Monday for the Met Mile. Will probably work in Hollywod Park somewhere as well. Big weekend for horse racing and not alot else. I will sit and watch the Indy 500 and the Coca Cola 600 Sunday but I can play along side those. I got a feeling I'm gonna win some money this weekend. Stay tuned!

Hot Start!

Sat, 07 May 2011 18:51:26 +0100

I was 4 for 4 after the first 4 races on Derby Day. Gone a little cold now races 5 & 7. For the Derby? I like 3M (Mucho Macho Man), Midnight Interlude and of course Dialed in. Their is no doubt in my mind the winner is coming from off the pace, just how far off? I don't think any of the deeper closers can beat Dialed in. But it will probably come from mid pack. That's why I like 3M, Back later.

Been away

Fri, 06 May 2011 22:51:37 +0100

I had a golf trip last weekend so I am just now getting back to the ole' grindstone. I am working on all my Kentucky Derby picks. Here I am going to lay out my pick 6 and my Pick 5 & 4. I can tell you now that I have decided that 3M (Mucho Macho Man) is the horse to beat. I will be on him straight up and in my exotics. I had Plum Pretty in the Oaks. SWEET! Of course the odds fell right at the last minute. But that was my horse in both the Oaks/Derby Double and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick 3, 1 down, 2 to go! I will be back tomorrow morning with all my picks.

WRONG!

Sun, 24 Apr 2011 23:51:41 +0100

I missed my first pick 4. Drats! Well I rushed through it today, I will get them next week. Speaking of getting them next time. What happened to the Knicks? SWEPT? WTF?

I love Hollywood Park!

Sun, 24 Apr 2011 22:57:18 +0100

I love to play HP. I played yesterday (4-23-11) and hit 8 of 10. I missed races 6 & 9. I look forward to getting to watch the Friday night races, although I hate they aren't doing it the way they did in 2010. Playing on such a limited budget today that I should just turn off the TV and read something. Catching some NBA playoffs too. Grizzlies are beating the Spurs. Write it down.