Belmont Stakes 2011
June 8, 2011
A few facts about Belmont winners since 2000;
7 horses that won the Belmont in the last 11 tries (Since 2000) competed in the Kentucky Derby. None Won. The best Finish was in 2003, 2nd place, Empire Maker. But where it gets interesting is that only 1 of the last 4, Summerbird who finished 6th, even ran in the Derby.
None of the last 5 Belmont winners raced in the Preakness and only 2 since 2000. But they both won the Preakness. This stat screams Shackleford or new shooter.
I think there are 3 pace scenarios that could play out Saturday.
1. (My Favorite) Shackleford has to be sent a little since he is on outside but field assumes he will throttle back due to distance but he doesn't. He tries to "Secretariat" them and builds enough cushion the late runners can't catch him. I think this strategy would have won him the Derby.
2. Shackleford breaks to lead but then slows it way down. Now it has become the Kentucky Derby where he has shown he won't fire when bogged down early. Now Animal Kingdom gets the lead at the top of the stretch and Nehro, 3M and maybe Master of Hounds are making their runs just like in the derby with a little more distance too get it done.
3. Shackleford is sent but the others try to stay with him. It turns into a very unexpected speed duel where the contenders basically run them selves off their own feet. Now Brillant Speed, Monzon and Santiva make their runs while the leaders fall apart. This is the scenario where the Super pays like crazy.
I will spend a little on each scenario, but I think its either gonna be 1 or 3. My pick is 1. I think it's Shackleford's to lose. I know scenario 3 seems crazy but I think it's very possible. You have to remember that Animal Kingdom broke his Maiden from the point going wire to wire. He has more tactical speed than is normally mentioned and I can almost guarantee he will be more forwardly placed. It's also possible that Shack and AK are just the class of the field and they smoke the rest of them.
Remember you can follow me on Twitter at #MissippyGambler
7 horses that won the Belmont in the last 11 tries (Since 2000) competed in the Kentucky Derby. None Won. The best Finish was in 2003, 2nd place, Empire Maker. But where it gets interesting is that only 1 of the last 4, Summerbird who finished 6th, even ran in the Derby.
None of the last 5 Belmont winners raced in the Preakness and only 2 since 2000. But they both won the Preakness. This stat screams Shackleford or new shooter.
I think there are 3 pace scenarios that could play out Saturday.
1. (My Favorite) Shackleford has to be sent a little since he is on outside but field assumes he will throttle back due to distance but he doesn't. He tries to "Secretariat" them and builds enough cushion the late runners can't catch him. I think this strategy would have won him the Derby.
2. Shackleford breaks to lead but then slows it way down. Now it has become the Kentucky Derby where he has shown he won't fire when bogged down early. Now Animal Kingdom gets the lead at the top of the stretch and Nehro, 3M and maybe Master of Hounds are making their runs just like in the derby with a little more distance too get it done.
3. Shackleford is sent but the others try to stay with him. It turns into a very unexpected speed duel where the contenders basically run them selves off their own feet. Now Brillant Speed, Monzon and Santiva make their runs while the leaders fall apart. This is the scenario where the Super pays like crazy.
I will spend a little on each scenario, but I think its either gonna be 1 or 3. My pick is 1. I think it's Shackleford's to lose. I know scenario 3 seems crazy but I think it's very possible. You have to remember that Animal Kingdom broke his Maiden from the point going wire to wire. He has more tactical speed than is normally mentioned and I can almost guarantee he will be more forwardly placed. It's also possible that Shack and AK are just the class of the field and they smoke the rest of them.
Remember you can follow me on Twitter at #MissippyGambler
Posted by Larry D Brewer.